Thursday, September 16, 2010


Due to human error, a transaction has occurred that resulted in a loss.

I am considerably upset at this as it represents the first substantial loss, for any of the accounts that I manage, in the last 6 months.

It was during a re-proportioning phase when I was incorporating new Client money into the Managed Pool, as well as de-merging money for 2 Clients, that I chose the wrong option to do this re-proportioning and inadvertantly closed all the open trades in one of my managed accounts.  These trades were in a drawdown situation whilst I was awaiting a pullback in the currencies, and I had no intention of closing them at that point in time as I was anticipating that those trades would have subsequently recovered to a profitable position.  The net effect, however, is that there has now been a substantial loss incurred in that account.

As you will be aware I have increased my Client's accounts steadily since we started, and I have proven that my trading methodology is relatively risk-free (except for the human errors!), and I believe it will continue to be a very profitable methodology in the future.

I intend to continue trading, and I am incorporating a few fail-safe features so the human-error component of my money management is effectively eliminated.

Once again, I apologise for this error.

Since that error, there have been developments on the money markets of the world that caught me by surprise.  I have always attempted to trade with a '5 year worst case loss' built into my trading methodology, but recent rumours in the press, panics amongst forex traders, and (imho) incorrect decisions by the Banks and Governments of the major financial pairs, have all combined to make the market the most unstable that I have ever seen it.

I am doing my best to stay sane (and profitable) whilst everyone else is losing their minds, but this is definitely the craziest market that I have ever seen.

Friday, September 3, 2010

Currency Pairs traded


I've been following a lot of different pairs since I started with FOREX, but the one I like most is GBP/JPY.

Every pair has it's moments when it seems 'predictable', but I find GBP/JPY to be very 'stable' as well, and also returns more-per-move than the others.  What I mean here is that when the market decides the price should go up or down, it usually goes up or down further with GBP/JPY than with any other pair I've followed.

Therefore most of my trades this last year have been in GBP/JPY, although I still use 2 other pairs.



Also, as you can see in this table, I'm also nearly always being pessimistic, in that I think the pair is going to fall in value, so nearly all the trades are SHORT, rather than LONG.

Bring on the collapse!

Wednesday, September 1, 2010

Update on Holding Times for trades


I've discovered errors in the formulae that I was using in my records spreadsheet, and fixing those errors means the published table of 'Length of TIME for each closed Individual Trade' is incorrect.

Here is the corrected table, as at the end of yesterdays trading.



Some of the trades are still a bit long!