Interest

It doesn't seem fair to be paying so much interest, as well as giving the brokers all those pips in the spreads, but there really isn't much choice.

This table shows the totals since I started the current collection of statistics, and the most surprising fact to me is that there are so many separate interest calculations.   I wouldn't want to be doing all the necessary paperwork by hand!

Luckily, OANDA's system works it all out.

Pips Gained (or Lost) per week

Another statistic I keep is to measure the number of wins and losses per week by pips gained or lost, and by whether or not the trades were long or short.

This allows me to keep all accounts on track for steady profits, without excessive peaks and troughs.  The peaks are OK, of course, because that's better-than-average profit, but when trading is slower, I start to worry that I'm not doing the right thing for my clients.

Here is the latest table of pips gained (or lost) per week:

I'm quite proud to say that there has only been one 'losing' week, by this way of counting, and that was when I stuffed up.  I was very tired and it was very late and my brain obviously wasn't in gear when I decided to put trailing stops on some open trades that were losing at the time.  When I do that on an MT4 platform, it isn't effective until the trade is in profit, but I forgot that on the OANDA platform, the trailing-stop is effective immediately, so a small retracement spat me out!

So I still know that my trading method works, giving steady returns each and every week!

Win-Loss ratios

One of the statistics I keep from my trading is the number and percentages of winning trades and losing trades.

I always try to win of course but sometimes, it just doesn't happen.  This table shows the breakdown of the figures for the most recent week, and also since I started keeping this record, in October 2009.

As you can see, the record shows that I'm 'doing alright!', but actually I'm very disappointed with these figures, because they would've been much better if I hadn't listened to some nay-sayers a few months ago.

At that time I was talked into trying a different approach to trading, and it reflects here, because at the end of week 30, the SINCE START figures were 790 (99.62%) wins, and 3 (0.38%) losses!

This 'set-back' had 2 effects on my trading - one was to bring DOUBT into my decision-making, and the other was to add to STRESS levels, which none of us need!

But don't worry, I'm ignoring the nay-sayers again, and trading 'my way'.

Lately the opportunities do seem to be a bit less obvious, but it'll get better!

Image is everything!

It's very frustrating trying to portray a true picture of my trading that will give Clients a fair and honest view of the risks, the rewards and the timing aspects of Forex trading.

As a manager of other-peoples-money, I am always trying to do the right thing by ALL my clients, but individuals have their own agenda, and try as I might, most of the time I can't convince some of them to see the 'big picture'.  This is especially true when Clients want to take money out when the trades are in a drawdown overall, which is obviously the wrong time to withdraw money because doing so converts UNREALISED losses into REALISED losses.

To see the real effects on both the individual and the manager's position of withdrawals, have a look at OANDA's explanation of 'Reproportioning' in the User Guide for Managers on this URL page:
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/forex_trading/fxmanager/

To make a long story short, Reproportioning creates interim buys and sells to merge or de-merge the Client's money from the 'pool' of managed money.  Only the Client instigating the reproportioning is affected by the re-arrangement of the open trades.  Most Clients don't even know that the trade has changed in any way, but the Client who closes-out can suffer a large loss if this is done at the wrong time.

Why I'm referring to this now is because companies like myfxbook (which I think is doing an excellent service for us all) uses the raw data from brokers like OANDA (and they are also the best in my opinion) to display charts and statistics, and because the interim reproportioning trades are identified the same way as my real trades, the results shown by myfxbook are misleading.  That affects my image!

The following two graphs are from myfxbook, showing the 2 public accounts I manage through OANDA.

I just HAVE to point out that during the last two months or so, I've made 154 actual trades and there has been only one loss, and that was only $0.64 !

In other words, the graphs show big losses that WEREN'T FROM MY TRADING.  As I initially said, it's very frustrating ...

Holding time for trades

**** this was edited for errors, see later post on 1 September 2010 ****

I'm continually being asked why I hold some trades for a very long time, rather than use a stop-loss procedure to minimise drawdowns.  The short answer is that it is just part of a winning 'formula'. 

My trading records show that I close over 84.5% of my trades within the same day that I opened them.  Another 3.4% are closed within the next day.  Therefore I consider myself to be a short-term trader, rather than a 'hold-and-pray' trader.

The problem is that when I show average trading times, such as in this table below, the few longer trades bias the results so much that the figures are nearly meaningless.

I'm still searching for a better way to show the average length of trades, that doesn't distort the facts.

Meanwhile you can see a breakdown of my trading results on myfxbook:

http://www.myfxbook.com/members/unclebigpete

myfxbook shows the details of my three managed accounts at OANDA.  The oldest account is private, but you can join either of the other two.  Just email me on peter@douglas.id.au, and I'll send you the 'paperwork'.

Meanwhile, happy trading!

Return on Capital

I think that return on capital is the most important factor of any trading method/style/scheme.

And everything should be measured in percentages, as the actual dollars involved aren't important. This type of thinking allows me to trade large amounts exactly the same way as small amounts, without fear or nerves getting in the way!

This graph is a combined total of the three managed accounts I have at OANDA.  I started this graph on October 15th, 2009, when I only had one account (with a few private clients), and since then I started the other two managed accounts (and these are open for anyone to join).

Because this is a combination of 3 accounts, note that not all monies is available to be committed to each trade, so there are 2 lines on the graph - the cumulative returns of the available bank, and the cumulative returns of the total bank.

The distance between the green squares indicates the number of trades I made in one of these accounts each week.  This graph covers 1,142 trades, over 43 weeks.  There have been some 'slow' trading periods - like the recent past - but overall I'm averaging nearly 7 trades per day.

Single trade returns

Those who know me personally will know that I don't like losing, especially money!

That's one of the reasons I've tried so hard to develop a trading methodology that results in lots of profits, and very few losses.  It's over a year since I (effectively) settled on a way to trade with  a high 'sleep-at-night' factor.

And I'm still tweaking it, as this graph of my last 1,142 trades shows:

If you know where to look, you'll see several distinct periods, where I used take-profit closes rather than manual closes, or where I tried stop-losses rather than trust my research/skill/diligence etc.

And the human-error trades show up, such as where I closed a losing trade when I was trying to open a new trade!  Those who know me will also remember how much stomping and yelling I did when that happened!

Trading frequency

I get regular comments about 'overtrading', so I thought I'd publicise my recent trading details.

This is a table of my trading since mid-October 2009.  

As you can see, I've averaged just short of 7 trades per day, but I don't trade every day as I'm trying to have a life, too!

When I trade, I use several chart scales to assess the market.  The trading decisions are based on the trend (which I get from the 4hr or Daily charts), and I drill down through the smaller timeframes to the 5 second chart to find the best entry and exit points.

I'm watching for patterns, such as Elliott Waves, and I also use the RSI, MACD and Stochastic indicators to time my entry/exit.

Some weeks, the market moves very predictably, so I get a lot of trades, but sometimes it's so unstable that trading really drops off.   That's one reason I think that it is always better to publish long-term statistics, so that the good times and the bad times are accounted for.